Just over the line: Italy's deficit and the EU
Italy's 2025 deficit came in at 3.08% of GDP, just over the EU's 3% line. So it stays in an EU budget procedure, for now.
On 22 September Istat, Italy's national statistics office, confirmed the deficit at 69.7 billion euros on GDP of 2,265 billion. It publishes the ratio rounded to 3.1%. On our calculation, the gap to 3% is about 1.8 billion euros.
The line matters because of the excessive deficit procedure. The EU opened one against Italy, France and five other countries in July 2024, and in January 2025 EU finance ministers asked Italy to get below 3% by 2026. A 2025 figure under the line would have let Rome leave a year early. Ten countries are in the procedure today. Malta left in June.
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti took the figure "not without regret" and said the exit could come in 2027. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, on RAI's Porta a Porta, said the deficit had fallen from 8.1% to 3.08%, and added: "I don't know if Istat underestimates Italians or the government." The European Commission gives its assessment in November.
The coalition is split on what comes next. Matteo Salvini, one of Italy's two deputy prime ministers (League), wants extra borrowing "worth billions" in the next budget. Antonio Tajani, the other (Forza Italia), called the 0.1 "a trifle", and his party asked for careful management of public finances. The opposition points to the tax take: 42.9% of GDP in 2025, up 0.7 points.
What the extra room was for is contested. Il Post reports that leaving the procedure would have eased up to 36 billion euros of defence and energy spending under an EU escape clause. PublicPolicy argues the clause can be used inside the procedure as well.
Public debt stood at 136.7% of GDP in 2025.
Istat (national accounts, 22/9/2026), Council of the EU, ANSA, Il Post, PublicPolicy
